If you are wondering why the stock is rising this morning, here's a hypothesis: Société Générale filed down all of their stake on Friday. Probably transferred to Xavier Niel. Niel may have been buying all the way up over the market and could be filing for a +20% stake soon. Or he joins a takeover bid. Bonds keep trading down, indicating greater likelihood of a takeover.
Feb 12, 2023·edited Feb 12, 2023Liked by alwaysinvert
Hi mate, hopefully you are right as I also bought the stock
But using 6x for Bolivia, Paraguay and Colombia is too aggressive.
Also selling towers is not neutral. You need to then pay rent (100-200m usd per year?) and deduct it accordingly in your EBITDA..... But I think your valuation on the towers is too low. I think 2-2.5b USD using other listed tower companies.
The main risk on the deal is structuring the financing , as they can not go higher than 3.5x net debt to ebitda..if they do they need to pay the whole debt to due change of control clauses.
Still very good, but I think fair is something like 30
If you are wondering why the stock is rising this morning, here's a hypothesis: Société Générale filed down all of their stake on Friday. Probably transferred to Xavier Niel. Niel may have been buying all the way up over the market and could be filing for a +20% stake soon. Or he joins a takeover bid. Bonds keep trading down, indicating greater likelihood of a takeover.
Hi mate, hopefully you are right as I also bought the stock
But using 6x for Bolivia, Paraguay and Colombia is too aggressive.
Also selling towers is not neutral. You need to then pay rent (100-200m usd per year?) and deduct it accordingly in your EBITDA..... But I think your valuation on the towers is too low. I think 2-2.5b USD using other listed tower companies.
The main risk on the deal is structuring the financing , as they can not go higher than 3.5x net debt to ebitda..if they do they need to pay the whole debt to due change of control clauses.
Still very good, but I think fair is something like 30