Thanks for the update. Have you done a study at all on how much the stock of TIGO like businesses move when they do a transaction involving their towers? I am wondering what sort of movement in the stock price this particular catalyst will cause.
There aren't many examples of where the infra monetizations have been as large compared to market cap as the case is -- or at least would have been -- here. One interesting comparison would be Telenet, where the stock didn't move much if anything on their tower sale, but they didn't announce any plans for the proceeds either. That extra leverage room was later used for a private takeover of the company by Liberty Global.
It's a political issue and I'm far from an expert on Colombian politics. But the current mayor has expressed willingness to sell and as I understand it he has enough seats to get it done, as opposed to the last mayor. The process I think would be that they get an independent valuation and use that as a basis for transaction. Such a valuation would not yield a high multiple now with the super-high rates and tough competitive situation. The likelihood of another bidder for a minority stake with Tigo as the controlling partner is minuscule. I don't know if the price situation can become prohibitively negative or if Medellin would want to sell anyway.
Not all investments turn out well. My first stab at Tigo in late 2019 certainly didn't either.
Anyway, some words from uncle Warren may be apt here:
"The market knows nothing about my feelings. That is one of the first things you have to learn about a stock. You buy 100 shares of General Motors (GM). Now all of a sudden you have this feeling about GM. It goes down, you may be mad at it. You may say, "Well, if it just goes up for what I paid for it, my life will be wonderful again." Or if it goes up, you may say how smart you were and how you and GM have this love affair. You have got all these feelings. The stock doesn't know you own it.
The stock just sits there; it doesn't care what you paid or the fact that you own it. Any feeling I have about the market is not reciprocated. I mean it is the ultimate cold shoulder we are talking about here."
Tx for the shout out and in depth Q1 preview!
Thanks for the update. Have you done a study at all on how much the stock of TIGO like businesses move when they do a transaction involving their towers? I am wondering what sort of movement in the stock price this particular catalyst will cause.
There aren't many examples of where the infra monetizations have been as large compared to market cap as the case is -- or at least would have been -- here. One interesting comparison would be Telenet, where the stock didn't move much if anything on their tower sale, but they didn't announce any plans for the proceeds either. That extra leverage room was later used for a private takeover of the company by Liberty Global.
Thanks for this. When you say "or at least would have been", what do you mean please?
That the market cap is up quite a bit.
great individual country insights.
what would trigger tigo une becoming available at a low price, and what would be best source of capital?
It's a political issue and I'm far from an expert on Colombian politics. But the current mayor has expressed willingness to sell and as I understand it he has enough seats to get it done, as opposed to the last mayor. The process I think would be that they get an independent valuation and use that as a basis for transaction. Such a valuation would not yield a high multiple now with the super-high rates and tough competitive situation. The likelihood of another bidder for a minority stake with Tigo as the controlling partner is minuscule. I don't know if the price situation can become prohibitively negative or if Medellin would want to sell anyway.
well after ~3 years, am back up to single-digit IRR and way behind u.s. money market funds.
the company's business position now seems where i expected it much sooner.
with towers and niel expected impact yet to price in, might as well see how it plays out.
Not all investments turn out well. My first stab at Tigo in late 2019 certainly didn't either.
Anyway, some words from uncle Warren may be apt here:
"The market knows nothing about my feelings. That is one of the first things you have to learn about a stock. You buy 100 shares of General Motors (GM). Now all of a sudden you have this feeling about GM. It goes down, you may be mad at it. You may say, "Well, if it just goes up for what I paid for it, my life will be wonderful again." Or if it goes up, you may say how smart you were and how you and GM have this love affair. You have got all these feelings. The stock doesn't know you own it.
The stock just sits there; it doesn't care what you paid or the fact that you own it. Any feeling I have about the market is not reciprocated. I mean it is the ultimate cold shoulder we are talking about here."
i've been on this type of value ride before, but usually with lower debt companies. bit more survivor angst here in 3rd-world adventures.
rumor is niel put in a lowball bid this week.
Thank you!