This probably means that he has been buying shares throughout the week (settlement date on the 15th for shares bought on the 13th). And the trading today was likely influenced by heavy buying just before a filing went official, which has been the usual pattern.
Next up is SEC filings where we will likely see in more detailed ways exactly how many shares were bought in total. With potential darkpool trading probably up to a few percent of outstanding thus far, if we think he has been buying all week.
Did you see the notice of change in the nomination committee just now? Xavier has a guy on the committee now. What do you think that means for a takeover?
I did see it. I'm not positive, but my guess would be that Xavier Niel can find someone who is not the CFO of Iliad to do that work too. That is, if Iliad is not going to figure into this in some way going forward.
What do you think is happening at the moment? Have a feeling this is going to end quite badly in the short term, in other words no takeover of any kind. Sure, Niel bought 250k more shares. But it's been month since he really bought a lot now, seems like he is kind of done at 20%. With the current "bank crisis" he must be having a harder time getting financing to buy more as well. The price action is kind of unsettling as well, and is usually a good indicator in takeover scenarios.
The 20% in Luxembourg (incl. treasury shares) holds no special significance that I can tell. If the other (??) XN buys more he should be aiming towards 25% afaict, since that gives tax-free treatments to dividends. That would be even if he never goes beyond to make a buyout offer.
As for trading patterns, I don't know. Apart from when XN has been buying, the stock hasn't really caught much of a bid ever. It's still a stock with a massive free float and it's historical pattern has been extreme weakness in volatile conditions. Someone (most likely Niel) was clearly buying aggressively last Friday, but since then not much seems to have happened. That would put him a bit beyond the 20% already, though. Under his current financing conditions he probably doesn't want a massively volatile stock, since he can't pledge infinity amount of shares to his banks. I don't think Iliad would have any issues with financing a deal.
Additionally, I think it's quite possible that there has been on and off discussions with the board and that's why there are absences from buying due to insider info. It's also conspicuous how the convening notice for the AGM is late by about a week compared to prior years.
Obviously, XN won't be giving away money for free to minority shareholders. But the big picture here is that this is still small stakes for him and the towers are on their way out shortly. I could certainly be wrong, but in my mind it doesn't make sense that he would be done yet. That doesn't mean that there is a bid for the entire company tomorrow, mind you.
Maybe, but it does very little to my belief about the general value proposition here. It's hard to interpret his moves exactly, but why would he join the nomination committee only now and not a month ago or several months ago? On its usual timeline their work should be done already at this point.
I think people get too influenced by price action. It still doesn't make much sense to me that he would be done with only a 20% stake and with the towers just around the corner. Provided that he wants a bigger stake, he still has a deadline. If he wants to go on the board, things will get complicated even quicker.
He could go out publicly and tell everyone that he is not bidding or accepting a bid and get the price down further in order to at some point buy more shares. But he has not done so. Why? Presumably, imo, because it wouldn't be true and perhaps the board could call him on such comments and maybe it would land him in legal troubles. So plausible deniability is the next best thing.
If by chance the real XN is reading this, I won't really believe that he is not interested in a bigger stake unless he comes out and explicitly says so, because his actions do not square with that idea.
Must say I was quite surprised by the last two days downward move.
I still believe that the most likely move is Xavier, in a consortium, takes the company private. With each partner in the consortium taking a stake, and thus avoiding triggering a change of control clause.
Also believe, after emailing a bit with Michel Morin, that the proposed board will be revealed within a week, most likely Monday. If there isn't someone from Niel on there, I believe that will confirm an impending takeover from him.
Nice find. Like that you're listening to Iliad's call.
What do you make of today's move in the stock? Quite low volume, considering the large drop. Hopefully Niel vacuums everything again, as he doesn’t seem to mind buying at these levels.
Clearly some amount of capitulation, especially since the stock didn't turn upwards this afternoon with the broader market. But yes, all in all not unusual volume. Arb spreads usually blow out in this kind of climate and this is an odd duck in terms of arb. The JPM note certainly didn't help.
Niel stepped over 20% (including treasury shares on the 15th, 13D was excluding). This filing has him with 250k more shares than what was known earlier. https://www.millicom.com/media/5497/atlas-luxco-sarl-major-holding-notification-20230317.pdf
This probably means that he has been buying shares throughout the week (settlement date on the 15th for shares bought on the 13th). And the trading today was likely influenced by heavy buying just before a filing went official, which has been the usual pattern.
Next up is SEC filings where we will likely see in more detailed ways exactly how many shares were bought in total. With potential darkpool trading probably up to a few percent of outstanding thus far, if we think he has been buying all week.
Thanks for your thoughts!
Did you see the notice of change in the nomination committee just now? Xavier has a guy on the committee now. What do you think that means for a takeover?
He seems to be from Iliad.
Thank you!
I did see it. I'm not positive, but my guess would be that Xavier Niel can find someone who is not the CFO of Iliad to do that work too. That is, if Iliad is not going to figure into this in some way going forward.
He just filed again. Picked up another percentage.
https://millicom.gcs-web.com/node/14411/html
Thanks!
What do you think is happening at the moment? Have a feeling this is going to end quite badly in the short term, in other words no takeover of any kind. Sure, Niel bought 250k more shares. But it's been month since he really bought a lot now, seems like he is kind of done at 20%. With the current "bank crisis" he must be having a harder time getting financing to buy more as well. The price action is kind of unsettling as well, and is usually a good indicator in takeover scenarios.
Hello XN!
The 20% in Luxembourg (incl. treasury shares) holds no special significance that I can tell. If the other (??) XN buys more he should be aiming towards 25% afaict, since that gives tax-free treatments to dividends. That would be even if he never goes beyond to make a buyout offer.
As for trading patterns, I don't know. Apart from when XN has been buying, the stock hasn't really caught much of a bid ever. It's still a stock with a massive free float and it's historical pattern has been extreme weakness in volatile conditions. Someone (most likely Niel) was clearly buying aggressively last Friday, but since then not much seems to have happened. That would put him a bit beyond the 20% already, though. Under his current financing conditions he probably doesn't want a massively volatile stock, since he can't pledge infinity amount of shares to his banks. I don't think Iliad would have any issues with financing a deal.
Additionally, I think it's quite possible that there has been on and off discussions with the board and that's why there are absences from buying due to insider info. It's also conspicuous how the convening notice for the AGM is late by about a week compared to prior years.
Obviously, XN won't be giving away money for free to minority shareholders. But the big picture here is that this is still small stakes for him and the towers are on their way out shortly. I could certainly be wrong, but in my mind it doesn't make sense that he would be done yet. That doesn't mean that there is a bid for the entire company tomorrow, mind you.
Would you agree that a full blown take over after today seems less likely than before? Feels like he is in it for the long run.
Maybe, but it does very little to my belief about the general value proposition here. It's hard to interpret his moves exactly, but why would he join the nomination committee only now and not a month ago or several months ago? On its usual timeline their work should be done already at this point.
I think people get too influenced by price action. It still doesn't make much sense to me that he would be done with only a 20% stake and with the towers just around the corner. Provided that he wants a bigger stake, he still has a deadline. If he wants to go on the board, things will get complicated even quicker.
He could go out publicly and tell everyone that he is not bidding or accepting a bid and get the price down further in order to at some point buy more shares. But he has not done so. Why? Presumably, imo, because it wouldn't be true and perhaps the board could call him on such comments and maybe it would land him in legal troubles. So plausible deniability is the next best thing.
If by chance the real XN is reading this, I won't really believe that he is not interested in a bigger stake unless he comes out and explicitly says so, because his actions do not square with that idea.
Must say I was quite surprised by the last two days downward move.
I still believe that the most likely move is Xavier, in a consortium, takes the company private. With each partner in the consortium taking a stake, and thus avoiding triggering a change of control clause.
Also believe, after emailing a bit with Michel Morin, that the proposed board will be revealed within a week, most likely Monday. If there isn't someone from Niel on there, I believe that will confirm an impending takeover from him.
Would you agree that's still likely?
That would be my first guess too.
Nice find. Like that you're listening to Iliad's call.
What do you make of today's move in the stock? Quite low volume, considering the large drop. Hopefully Niel vacuums everything again, as he doesn’t seem to mind buying at these levels.
Clearly some amount of capitulation, especially since the stock didn't turn upwards this afternoon with the broader market. But yes, all in all not unusual volume. Arb spreads usually blow out in this kind of climate and this is an odd duck in terms of arb. The JPM note certainly didn't help.