There it goes! Back to 150 for the rest of the year. No way it recovers this without the french buying more. Higher prob of ended bid talks than actual bid imo. @alwaysinvert @kaj-winther @cohenblackedge @XN
Hello! Interested in your thoughts on the upcoming AGM. Is there anything non-communicated that you're looking out for. Anything that could be good for the stock price, and anything that could be bad? Something related to the takeover?
It's possible that it contained some element of takeover defense. They would have had to redeem it in probably 6 months or so anyway. But it means you need slightly more immediate financing to do a takeover at this moment.
Otherwise it's in line with the stated intent of taking down debt and it makes more sense to not roll the short-them maturities than when they bought back cheap long bonds during the fall, even if that was at slight discounts.
Thanks! What do you believe is the most likely outcome in the coming summer months? AGM and EGM, Takeover talks, tower co, buybacks, dividend, new board. Value your opinion highly, and believe a lot of others do as well.
No real reason to expect buybacks. Why would Niel crowd out himself? Mid-term there will probably be dividends after tower transaction. Atlas likely needs dividends at some point. This would also be in line with Niel's usual modus operandi.
I think all in all it still would make the most sense to bid for the company soon. If not, Niel needs more equity in his holdco. Maybe he wants to go above 25% in Atlas with market purchases before making the move, but probably not absolutely necessary either.
Seems like that was it. At least for summer. Own an irresponsible amount of september calls. This is so over, very uncommon for the market to not be ahead of the curve in a situation like this. I'm sure we'll be back at 160-170 in no time, and the takeover talks will end any day now. If there's a bid, it'll most likely be in the 225-235 range, tops. But consider that to be highly unlikely.
You could certainly be correct, but thus far the volume seems a bit low to conclude confidently that there is a negative leak rather than the absence of a large buyer in the market.
But I feel that if things were really as many here have believed, there would be more support from buyers here. We can’t be the only ones to have seen “it”. Xavier was the only thing keeping the stock price up. He goes, so does the stock. There has been almost no volume the last two months, if this was such an opportunity, with takeover talks and a new large shareholder, there would be special situations funds all over it, especially now. By the AGM I’m guessing it’s below 160.
Lots of people have seen it and lots of special sits/arb shops have shown interest in this, both in Sweden and globally. Not anyone of Elliott size, obviously, or it would be public news. But I know this for a fact and you can probably roughly figure out the reasons why I know this without me divulging too much.
However, you are of course correct that Niel has been the one driving the share price and the only major buyer.
Muddying the waters is part of the game and I’m certain the strategy is very much in play. The +23% stake just in time for a final surge to reach 25% in time before the AGM was the confirmation I wanted.
Bare in mind the optics of a Lux-registered telco, market in latam and the stock traded with a minimum of liquidity. (That’s where any big fish would do their 1-minute DD. Few will take another minute to find that the vast majority of trading is done in SDR,s on a stockmarket far away.
Yes, doesn’t feel good at all. I’m out now. Very, very unlikely that this means anything other than that it’s over. Sure, you may see 250 in a year or two. But for now, this thing is over.
Maybe lower chances in the *very* immediate future. But something could still happen soon, perhaps before the AGM. At the very least he will be on the lookout for significantly more shares. I don't think this story is over yet. Still no real reason why he would be done at 21% and he put the big guns on the board.
I'm hopeful for you to ponder on the following (perhaps a new substack post):
- what could a deal with Iliad look like (and spell out the steps for simpletons like me :) )
- think the unthinkable: how can a deal with Iliad "screw over" TIGO minorities: what if XN gets control of TIGO, but lets most of the value accrue to the Iliad side of the equation in case of a reverse merger?
On the first, I think I have made some suggestions in previous posts. A two- or three-way split with Atlas and possibly Apollo. Or subsuming Tigo into Iliad in order to make the debt metrics better.
Second I guess could happen in a way if the combined entity would get a low valuation, which I kind of doubt it would as Iliad is such an outperformer on its own. This would be a rather convoluted transaction and hard to get done with Tigo's shareholder base. They don't want to own yet another levered entity with even more tenuous relations to the old Stenbeck company and still no dividends. The company is for sale at the right price, at least for the outside minority shareholders. Employee shareholders may be another matter.
The worst outcome for shareholders could be slow accumulation of shares by Niel, perhaps in combination with putting off the tower transaction until he can buy even more on the cheap. I think the rest of the board would be against this and probably also management. And the share is getting rather illiquid lately, so how many shares will he actually be able to buy at current levels or below?
Maybe this report actually increased the probability of a bid, considering he can probably get away with 250 SEK, could probably do 230 as a first offer as well.
The case certainly doesn't feel as 'easily read' as one might have thought in the beginning. Feeling a bit disoriented currently, Xavier's email to Bloomberg is also hard to decrypt. If he wants more shares, why do something that might bring up the stock price?
What's your take now? Does he still want more shares? Or will he wait and see here? Also saw that he is in talks with Vodafone over their European operations.
@alwaysinvert Yesterday I got an alert from the Substack-app. I can’t open the message though. Under ”Activity” I can see the intro of your text, but that’s it. Can you post the same message as a comment in this thread?
Seems like the AGM notice will be delayed? Do you have any interesting thoughts as to why? Seems like the chance of a takeover bid has increased a bit the last week, considering the time it's taking. XN driving a hard bargain. Maybe a consortium with XN takes the company, with Apollo buying the tower co, or something similar.
Still a tiny amount of time left to make the May 4 date, but looking increasingly unlikely. The date can be delayed of course, but hard to see how that will improve the situation for the board much. Unless it buys them time to monetize assets without the need of an AGM approval before that?
The fact that they appear not to be making the deadline speaks to the complications with the situation. Perhaps the other members of the NC want to block Niel from the board, which I think would be prudent for the time being. No upside for the other shareholders with having him on the board right now. Best from all sides would be if they can reach a deal, but from the time it's taking I guess finding a price everybody can live with has not been possible yet. In my mind the premium from current market price needs to be large.
A delayment does however give XN enough time to reach 25% slowly, without skyrocketing the stock. That would perhaps tip the scale on an acceptable bid. Averageprice matters.
It's getting more and more exciting. Xavier doesn't seem to be buying, which must, as you said, indicate discussions with the board. As to what they're talking about, I still believe an acquisition of all outstanding shares is the most likely scenario for Xavier. Do you also believe that the tower company is ready to be sold before the AGM, or around that time? Let's say if Apollo is a willing buyer then.
Don't know about how beneficial, but presumably he wants to get all of the company before the towers are separated out completely. So if there is two more months of nothing happening then there's only maximum two quarters left against the company's original timeline. It's a small window to push through a buyout of such a large company with different listings and such.
Niel could of course, hypothetically, postpone the separation when he gets the reins but that would hurt the IRR and complicate his current financing. However, that is a conceivable way to get his average price per share lower, at the expense of speed. That would require a way larger equity stake, though. He will not be able to overtake the board completely as things stand now.
Do I see a way of that strategy making sense over a quicker bid if a deal can be struck? Not really, there just doesn't seem to be many shares available for sale at these levels. And paying a bit more for a quicker resolution really doesn't do much to the EV calculation.
Then there's the issue of complications around bidding for the company "from the inside" (that is after going on the board at the AGM). All else equal, this must me much more of a pain in the behind. But he might be left with not alternative by demands from the current board. If that route is chosen, I would expect again to see more aggressive market purchases before the AGM.
But forgoing board seats if a deal cannot be reached and then going hostile or at least semi-hostile might ultimately be preferred. In such a case the stock price would most likely move up from here too.
I do still agree with you that a bid before the AGM seems like the best option from all sides.
if we HODLr's get murdered, this here is some upcoming season of CSI, Forensic Securites Squad.
Thanks for your good and professional work - Will HODL to 40$
Change of date:
https://millicom.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/millicom-announces-change-date-annual-general-meeting-0/
There it goes! Back to 150 for the rest of the year. No way it recovers this without the french buying more. Higher prob of ended bid talks than actual bid imo. @alwaysinvert @kaj-winther @cohenblackedge @XN
Hello! Interested in your thoughts on the upcoming AGM. Is there anything non-communicated that you're looking out for. Anything that could be good for the stock price, and anything that could be bad? Something related to the takeover?
Thanks again!
Might be time for a much wanted update? Ahead of the AGM with some thoughts.
Not sure much has really changed.
Would you say the early redemption of SEK 2B bond was in some way connected to a takeover bid? Cleaning house?
It's possible that it contained some element of takeover defense. They would have had to redeem it in probably 6 months or so anyway. But it means you need slightly more immediate financing to do a takeover at this moment.
Otherwise it's in line with the stated intent of taking down debt and it makes more sense to not roll the short-them maturities than when they bought back cheap long bonds during the fall, even if that was at slight discounts.
Thanks! What do you believe is the most likely outcome in the coming summer months? AGM and EGM, Takeover talks, tower co, buybacks, dividend, new board. Value your opinion highly, and believe a lot of others do as well.
No real reason to expect buybacks. Why would Niel crowd out himself? Mid-term there will probably be dividends after tower transaction. Atlas likely needs dividends at some point. This would also be in line with Niel's usual modus operandi.
I think all in all it still would make the most sense to bid for the company soon. If not, Niel needs more equity in his holdco. Maybe he wants to go above 25% in Atlas with market purchases before making the move, but probably not absolutely necessary either.
Is it a common occurrence that takeover bids are presented in proximity to an AGM? Enough so that one shouldn’t be surprised if it all ended here?
Seems like that was it. At least for summer. Own an irresponsible amount of september calls. This is so over, very uncommon for the market to not be ahead of the curve in a situation like this. I'm sure we'll be back at 160-170 in no time, and the takeover talks will end any day now. If there's a bid, it'll most likely be in the 225-235 range, tops. But consider that to be highly unlikely.
You could certainly be correct, but thus far the volume seems a bit low to conclude confidently that there is a negative leak rather than the absence of a large buyer in the market.
But I feel that if things were really as many here have believed, there would be more support from buyers here. We can’t be the only ones to have seen “it”. Xavier was the only thing keeping the stock price up. He goes, so does the stock. There has been almost no volume the last two months, if this was such an opportunity, with takeover talks and a new large shareholder, there would be special situations funds all over it, especially now. By the AGM I’m guessing it’s below 160.
Lots of people have seen it and lots of special sits/arb shops have shown interest in this, both in Sweden and globally. Not anyone of Elliott size, obviously, or it would be public news. But I know this for a fact and you can probably roughly figure out the reasons why I know this without me divulging too much.
However, you are of course correct that Niel has been the one driving the share price and the only major buyer.
Muddying the waters is part of the game and I’m certain the strategy is very much in play. The +23% stake just in time for a final surge to reach 25% in time before the AGM was the confirmation I wanted.
Bare in mind the optics of a Lux-registered telco, market in latam and the stock traded with a minimum of liquidity. (That’s where any big fish would do their 1-minute DD. Few will take another minute to find that the vast majority of trading is done in SDR,s on a stockmarket far away.
Yes, doesn’t feel good at all. I’m out now. Very, very unlikely that this means anything other than that it’s over. Sure, you may see 250 in a year or two. But for now, this thing is over.
https://millicom.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/millicom-nomination-committees-proposal-board-directors-4/
Well, there goes XN’s takeover. Or do you have another idea?
Maybe lower chances in the *very* immediate future. But something could still happen soon, perhaps before the AGM. At the very least he will be on the lookout for significantly more shares. I don't think this story is over yet. Still no real reason why he would be done at 21% and he put the big guns on the board.
I'm hopeful for you to ponder on the following (perhaps a new substack post):
- what could a deal with Iliad look like (and spell out the steps for simpletons like me :) )
- think the unthinkable: how can a deal with Iliad "screw over" TIGO minorities: what if XN gets control of TIGO, but lets most of the value accrue to the Iliad side of the equation in case of a reverse merger?
On the first, I think I have made some suggestions in previous posts. A two- or three-way split with Atlas and possibly Apollo. Or subsuming Tigo into Iliad in order to make the debt metrics better.
Second I guess could happen in a way if the combined entity would get a low valuation, which I kind of doubt it would as Iliad is such an outperformer on its own. This would be a rather convoluted transaction and hard to get done with Tigo's shareholder base. They don't want to own yet another levered entity with even more tenuous relations to the old Stenbeck company and still no dividends. The company is for sale at the right price, at least for the outside minority shareholders. Employee shareholders may be another matter.
The worst outcome for shareholders could be slow accumulation of shares by Niel, perhaps in combination with putting off the tower transaction until he can buy even more on the cheap. I think the rest of the board would be against this and probably also management. And the share is getting rather illiquid lately, so how many shares will he actually be able to buy at current levels or below?
Yeah you're right, first point can just be similar to the Eir case with the 3 way deal, as you tweeted & written about.
Thanks for staying on top of all of the TIGO developments!
Maybe this report actually increased the probability of a bid, considering he can probably get away with 250 SEK, could probably do 230 as a first offer as well.
The case certainly doesn't feel as 'easily read' as one might have thought in the beginning. Feeling a bit disoriented currently, Xavier's email to Bloomberg is also hard to decrypt. If he wants more shares, why do something that might bring up the stock price?
What's your take now? Does he still want more shares? Or will he wait and see here? Also saw that he is in talks with Vodafone over their European operations.
@alwaysinvert Yesterday I got an alert from the Substack-app. I can’t open the message though. Under ”Activity” I can see the intro of your text, but that’s it. Can you post the same message as a comment in this thread?
It didn’t relate. Just trying the Notes feature
Seems like the AGM notice will be delayed? Do you have any interesting thoughts as to why? Seems like the chance of a takeover bid has increased a bit the last week, considering the time it's taking. XN driving a hard bargain. Maybe a consortium with XN takes the company, with Apollo buying the tower co, or something similar.
Still a tiny amount of time left to make the May 4 date, but looking increasingly unlikely. The date can be delayed of course, but hard to see how that will improve the situation for the board much. Unless it buys them time to monetize assets without the need of an AGM approval before that?
The fact that they appear not to be making the deadline speaks to the complications with the situation. Perhaps the other members of the NC want to block Niel from the board, which I think would be prudent for the time being. No upside for the other shareholders with having him on the board right now. Best from all sides would be if they can reach a deal, but from the time it's taking I guess finding a price everybody can live with has not been possible yet. In my mind the premium from current market price needs to be large.
A delayment does however give XN enough time to reach 25% slowly, without skyrocketing the stock. That would perhaps tip the scale on an acceptable bid. Averageprice matters.
It's getting more and more exciting. Xavier doesn't seem to be buying, which must, as you said, indicate discussions with the board. As to what they're talking about, I still believe an acquisition of all outstanding shares is the most likely scenario for Xavier. Do you also believe that the tower company is ready to be sold before the AGM, or around that time? Let's say if Apollo is a willing buyer then.
My guess would be no, they're not ready yet. But I really don't know.
If Niel is going to make a takeover bid, is it more beneficial for him to do it before or after the AGM?
Don't know about how beneficial, but presumably he wants to get all of the company before the towers are separated out completely. So if there is two more months of nothing happening then there's only maximum two quarters left against the company's original timeline. It's a small window to push through a buyout of such a large company with different listings and such.
Niel could of course, hypothetically, postpone the separation when he gets the reins but that would hurt the IRR and complicate his current financing. However, that is a conceivable way to get his average price per share lower, at the expense of speed. That would require a way larger equity stake, though. He will not be able to overtake the board completely as things stand now.
Do I see a way of that strategy making sense over a quicker bid if a deal can be struck? Not really, there just doesn't seem to be many shares available for sale at these levels. And paying a bit more for a quicker resolution really doesn't do much to the EV calculation.
Then there's the issue of complications around bidding for the company "from the inside" (that is after going on the board at the AGM). All else equal, this must me much more of a pain in the behind. But he might be left with not alternative by demands from the current board. If that route is chosen, I would expect again to see more aggressive market purchases before the AGM.
But forgoing board seats if a deal cannot be reached and then going hostile or at least semi-hostile might ultimately be preferred. In such a case the stock price would most likely move up from here too.
I do still agree with you that a bid before the AGM seems like the best option from all sides.